Stock Price Trends

Agilysys Inc (AGYS)

Agilysys, Inc. is a developer and marketer of hardware and software products and services for the hospitality industry in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and India. The company is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.93% per annum.
  • AGYS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $72.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.13% per annum.
  • AGYS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AGYS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 15.6993

b = -0.0063

s = 0.0882

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0063) – 1
= -89.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0882) – 1
= 42.28%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6993 + -0.0063 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(5.2081)
= $182.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6993 + -0.0063 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.8554)
= $128.44

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6993 + -0.0063 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.3967)
= $81.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6993 + -0.0063 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.0441)
= $57.06

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.93% per annum.
  • AGYS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $72.54 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 10.6666

b = -0.0035

s = 0.0276

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.67%

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6666 + -0.0035 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.5644)
= $96.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6666 + -0.0035 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.4540)
= $85.97

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6666 + -0.0035 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.3333)
= $76.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6666 + -0.0035 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.2230)
= $68.24

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.13% per annum.
  • AGYS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.