Agilysys Inc (AGYS)
Agilysys, Inc. is a developer and marketer of hardware and software products and services for the hospitality industry in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and India. The company is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.37% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $123.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $83.07 (207.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.53% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AGYS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2020
End date: June 30, 2022
a = 4.0674
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1419) – 1
= 76.40%
November 17, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0674 + -0.0004 × 363 + 2 × 0.1419)
= Exp(4.2199)
= $68.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0674 + -0.0004 × 363 – 2 × 0.1419)
= Exp(3.6523)
= $38.56
June 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0674 + -0.0004 × 953 + 2 × 0.1419)
= Exp(4.0064)
= $54.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0674 + -0.0004 × 953 – 2 × 0.1419)
= Exp(3.4388)
= $31.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.37% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $123.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $83.07 (207.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.0057
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1355) – 1
= 71.94%
October 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0057 + 0.0010 × 707 + 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(3.9495)
= $51.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0057 + 0.0010 × 707 – 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(3.4075)
= $30.19
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0057 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(5.0144)
= $150.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0057 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(4.4724)
= $87.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.53% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.