Stock Price Trends

Workday Inc (WDAY)

Workday, Inc. provides business applications in the cloud worldwide. The company is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.35% per annum.
  • WDAY price at the close of March 11, 2025 was $242.93 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $110.56 (31.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.28% per annum.
  • WDAY price at the close of March 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 17, 2022
End date: April 12, 2024

a = 4.0797

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0750

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0750) – 1
= 35.01%

May 17, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0797 + 0.0011 × 796 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(5.0752)
= $160.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0797 + 0.0011 × 796 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(4.7750)
= $118.51

April 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0797 + 0.0011 × 1,492 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(5.8144)
= $335.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0797 + 0.0011 × 1,492 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(5.5142)
= $248.19

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.35% per annum.
  • WDAY price at the close of March 11, 2025 was $242.93 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $110.56 (31.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 26, 2023
End date: March 11, 2025

a = 5.2546

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0944

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0944) – 1
= 45.86%

May 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2546 + 0.0002 × 1,170 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.6387)
= $281.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2546 + 0.0002 × 1,170 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.2612)
= $192.72

March 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2546 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.7481)
= $313.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2546 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.3706)
= $214.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.28% per annum.
  • WDAY price at the close of March 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.