Stock Price Trends

Bill Com Holdings Inc (BILL)

Bill.com Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based software that digitizes and automates financial back-office operations for small and medium-sized businesses globally. The company is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.79% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of March 11, 2025 was $44.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.09% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of March 11, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $27.47 (38.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BILL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 22, 2021
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 6.2173

b = -0.0014

s = 0.1987

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1987) – 1
= 121.36%

June 22, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2173 + -0.0014 × 467 + 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(5.9655)
= $389.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2173 + -0.0014 × 467 – 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(5.1709)
= $176.07

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2173 + -0.0014 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(4.2533)
= $70.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2173 + -0.0014 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(3.4587)
= $31.78

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.79% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of March 11, 2025 was $44.39 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: February 6, 2025

a = -0.0709

b = 0.0025

s = 0.1486

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 153.09%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1486) – 1
= 81.22%

May 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0709 + 0.0025 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.1486)
= Exp(4.0755)
= $58.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0709 + 0.0025 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.1486)
= Exp(3.4809)
= $32.49

February 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0709 + 0.0025 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.1486)
= Exp(4.7853)
= $119.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0709 + 0.0025 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.1486)
= Exp(4.1907)
= $66.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.09% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of March 11, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $27.47 (38.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.