Stock Price Trends

Bill Com Holdings Inc (BILL)

Bill.com Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based software that digitizes and automates financial back-office operations for small and medium-sized businesses globally. The company is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.63% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $45.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.52% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BILL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 20, 2021
End date: November 4, 2024

a = 6.1993

b = -0.0014

s = 0.1943

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1943) – 1
= 117.57%

July 20, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1993 + -0.0014 × 448 + 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(5.9481)
= $383.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1993 + -0.0014 × 448 – 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(5.1708)
= $176.06

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1993 + -0.0014 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(4.2300)
= $68.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1993 + -0.0014 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(3.4526)
= $31.58

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.63% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $45.23 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.5526

b = -0.0009

s = 0.2207

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2207) – 1
= 141.75%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5526 + -0.0009 × 737 + 2 × 0.2207)
= Exp(5.3441)
= $209.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5526 + -0.0009 × 737 – 2 × 0.2207)
= Exp(4.4613)
= $86.60

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5526 + -0.0009 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.2207)
= Exp(4.4066)
= $81.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5526 + -0.0009 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.2207)
= Exp(3.5239)
= $33.92

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.52% per annum.
  • BILL price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.