Guidewire Software Inc (GWRE)
Guidewire Software, Inc. provides software products for property and casualty insurers around the world. The company is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.85% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of March 11, 2025 was $172.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.21 (1.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.85% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of March 11, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $10.66 (5.81%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GWRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 2.6132
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0749
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 71.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0749) – 1
= 34.95%
October 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y650)
= Exp(a + b × X650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6132 + 0.0015 × 942 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.1605)
= $64.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y650)
= Exp(a + b × X650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6132 + 0.0015 × 942 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.8608)
= $47.50
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6132 + 0.0015 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(5.4630)
= $235.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6132 + 0.0015 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(5.1633)
= $174.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.85% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of March 11, 2025 was $172.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.21 (1.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2025
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 13.2574
b = -0.0044
s = 0.0171
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0044) – 1
= -79.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0171) – 1
= 7.09%
February 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.2574 + -0.0044 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(5.4342)
= $229.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.2574 + -0.0044 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(5.3657)
= $213.95
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.2574 + -0.0044 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(5.3025)
= $200.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.2574 + -0.0044 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(5.2341)
= $187.55
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.85% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of March 11, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $10.66 (5.81%).