Stock Price Trends

Salesforce.com Inc (CRM)

Salesforce.com, Inc. is an American cloud-based software company headquartered in San Francisco, California. It provides customer relationship management (CRM) service and also provides a complementary suite of enterprise applications focused on customer service, marketing automation, analytics, and application development.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.58% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $264.70 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $32.80 (11.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.58% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.41 (4.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 25, 2022
End date: February 26, 2025

a = 4.2003

b = 0.0009

s = 0.1031

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1031) – 1
= 51.02%

August 25, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y588)
= Exp(a + b × X588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 850 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2003 + 0.0009 × 850 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(5.1996)
= $181.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y588)
= Exp(a + b × X588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 850 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2003 + 0.0009 × 850 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(4.7874)
= $119.99

February 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2003 + 0.0009 × 1,766 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(6.0544)
= $426.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2003 + 0.0009 × 1,766 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(5.6422)
= $282.08

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.58% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $264.70 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $32.80 (11.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 23, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 13.1738

b = -0.0042

s = 0.0302

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.84%

January 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1738 + -0.0042 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.9226)
= $373.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1738 + -0.0042 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.8018)
= $330.89

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1738 + -0.0042 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.5427)
= $255.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1738 + -0.0042 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.4219)
= $226.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.58% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.41 (4.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.