Stock Price Trends

Salesforce.com Inc (CRM)

Salesforce.com, Inc. is an American cloud-based software company headquartered in San Francisco, California. It provides customer relationship management (CRM) service and also provides a complementary suite of enterprise applications focused on customer service, marketing automation, analytics, and application development.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.20% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $268.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $108.59 (28.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.29% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.39 (1.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024

a = 3.8372

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0835

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.64%

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8372 + 0.0012 × 877 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.0911)
= $162.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8372 + 0.0012 × 877 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.7572)
= $116.42

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,514 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8372 + 0.0012 × 1,514 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.8806)
= $358.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,514 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8372 + 0.0012 × 1,514 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.5467)
= $256.38

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.20% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $268.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $108.59 (28.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 2, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.5160

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0959

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0959) – 1
= 46.76%

March 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5160 + 0.0007 × 1,065 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(5.4573)
= $234.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5160 + 0.0007 × 1,065 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(5.0737)
= $159.76

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5160 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(5.9922)
= $400.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5160 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(5.6085)
= $272.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.29% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.39 (1.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.