ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW)
ACI Worldwide, Inc., a software company, develops, markets, installs and supports a variety of software products and solutions to facilitate electronic payments to banks, financial intermediaries, merchants and invoice issuers globally. The company is headquartered in Naples, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.73% per annum.
- ACIW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $54.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (2.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.41% per annum.
- ACIW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACIW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 14, 2023
End date: February 10, 2025
a = 0.8956
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0758
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0758) – 1
= 35.41%
June 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y806)
= Exp(a + b × X806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8956 + 0.0018 × 1,169 + 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(3.1485)
= $23.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y806)
= Exp(a + b × X806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8956 + 0.0018 × 1,169 – 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(2.8454)
= $17.21
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8956 + 0.0018 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(4.2396)
= $69.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8956 + 0.0018 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(3.9365)
= $51.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.73% per annum.
- ACIW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $54.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (2.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 21, 2025
a = 4.8999
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0291
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.34%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8999 + -0.0005 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(4.0776)
= $59.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8999 + -0.0005 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.9612)
= $52.52
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8999 + -0.0005 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(4.0068)
= $54.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8999 + -0.0005 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.8904)
= $48.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.41% per annum.
- ACIW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.