Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)
Tyler Technologies, Inc., based in Plano, Texas, is the largest provider of software to the United States public sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.30% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $581.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.48% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TYL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2022
End date: March 7, 2025
a = 4.9174
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0616
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0616) – 1
= 27.96%
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y649)
= Exp(a + b × X649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9174 + 0.0008 × 939 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.8375)
= $342.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y649)
= Exp(a + b × X649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9174 + 0.0008 × 939 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.5909)
= $267.98
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9174 + 0.0008 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(6.5689)
= $712.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9174 + 0.0008 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(6.3224)
= $556.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.30% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $581.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 25, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.1819
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.81%
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1819 + 0.0001 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(6.4359)
= $623.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1819 + 0.0001 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(6.3065)
= $548.13
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1819 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(6.4658)
= $642.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1819 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(6.3364)
= $564.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.48% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.