Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)
Tyler Technologies, Inc., based in Plano, Texas, is the largest provider of software to the United States public sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.23% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $599.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.77% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TYL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.8058
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0636
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0636) – 1
= 28.98%
October 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8058 + 0.0008 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(5.8420)
= $344.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8058 + 0.0008 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(5.5875)
= $267.08
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8058 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(6.4799)
= $651.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8058 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(6.2254)
= $505.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.23% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $599.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.3166
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0407
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.69%
March 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3166 + 0.0017 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(6.1029)
= $447.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3166 + 0.0017 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(5.9400)
= $379.94
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3166 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(6.5500)
= $699.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3166 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(6.3871)
= $594.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.77% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.