Calix Inc (CALX)
Calix, Inc. provides cloud and software platforms and systems and services in the United States, the Middle East, Canada, Europe, the Caribbean, and internationally. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.99% per annum.
- CALX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $32.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.56% per annum.
- CALX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.03 (3.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CALX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.2411
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1040
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -31.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1040) – 1
= 51.62%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2411 + -0.0011 × 980 + 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(4.4139)
= $82.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2411 + -0.0011 × 980 – 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(3.9977)
= $54.47
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2411 + -0.0011 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(3.6438)
= $38.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2411 + -0.0011 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(3.2276)
= $25.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.99% per annum.
- CALX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $32.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 2.5058
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0682
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0682) – 1
= 31.38%
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5058 + 0.0006 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(3.5976)
= $36.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5058 + 0.0006 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(3.3246)
= $27.79
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5058 + 0.0006 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(3.7722)
= $43.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5058 + 0.0006 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(3.4992)
= $33.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.56% per annum.
- CALX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.03 (3.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.