Stock Price Trends

Dropbox Inc (DBX)

Dropbox, Inc. provides a worldwide collaboration platform. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.13% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $32.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 468.84% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DBX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 4, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 0.3833

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0293

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0293) – 1
= 12.44%

June 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.0997)
= $22.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(2.9824)
= $19.74

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.4961)
= $32.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.3788)
= $29.34

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.13% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $32.00 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 10, 2025
End date: January 27, 2025

a = -5.2327

b = 0.0048

s = 0.0051

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 468.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0051) – 1
= 2.08%

January 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2327 + 0.0048 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(3.3936)
= $29.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2327 + 0.0048 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(3.3730)
= $29.17

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2327 + 0.0048 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(3.4745)
= $32.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2327 + 0.0048 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(3.4540)
= $31.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 468.84% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.