Dropbox Inc (DBX)
Dropbox, Inc. provides a worldwide collaboration platform. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.56% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $28.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.38 (4.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.12% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DBX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 1.3045
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0563
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0563) – 1
= 25.25%
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y990)
= Exp(a + b × X990 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3045 + 0.0012 × 1,437 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(3.1566)
= $23.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y990)
= Exp(a + b × X990 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3045 + 0.0012 × 1,437 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(2.9315)
= $18.76
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3045 + 0.0012 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(3.5477)
= $34.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3045 + 0.0012 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(3.3225)
= $27.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.56% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $28.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.38 (4.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 5.9902
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0643
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0643) – 1
= 29.36%
December 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0015 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.5885)
= $36.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0015 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.3311)
= $27.97
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0015 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.3892)
= $29.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0015 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.1318)
= $22.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.12% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.