Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)
Super Micro Computer, Inc. develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on an open, modular architecture. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.10% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $34.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.66 (5.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 221.69% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2024
End date: February 7, 2025
a = 10.4647
b = -0.0040
s = 0.1949
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -77.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1949) – 1
= 118.09%
February 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4647 + -0.0040 × 1,412 + 2 × 0.1949)
= Exp(5.1518)
= $172.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4647 + -0.0040 × 1,412 – 2 × 0.1949)
= Exp(4.3720)
= $79.20
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4647 + -0.0040 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.1949)
= Exp(3.6937)
= $40.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4647 + -0.0040 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.1949)
= Exp(2.9140)
= $18.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.10% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $34.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.66 (5.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 30, 2024
End date: March 26, 2025
a = -2.0539
b = 0.0032
s = 0.1863
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 221.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1863) – 1
= 110.65%
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0539 + 0.0032 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.1863)
= Exp(3.6742)
= $39.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0539 + 0.0032 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.1863)
= Exp(2.9291)
= $18.71
March 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0539 + 0.0032 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.1863)
= Exp(4.1447)
= $63.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0539 + 0.0032 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.1863)
= Exp(3.3997)
= $29.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 221.69% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.