Campbell Soup Company Common Stock (CPB)
Campbell Soup Company, doing business as Campbell's, is an American processed food and snack company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.86% per annum.
- CPB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $46.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.48 (1.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.75% per annum.
- CPB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (0.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2023
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 2.8825
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0342
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0342) – 1
= 14.68%
August 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8825 + 0.0006 × 1,357 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.7164)
= $41.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8825 + 0.0006 × 1,357 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.5794)
= $35.85
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8825 + 0.0006 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.9612)
= $52.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8825 + 0.0006 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.8242)
= $45.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.86% per annum.
- CPB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $46.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.48 (1.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 6.5742
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0206
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.58%
August 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5742 + -0.0015 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.9841)
= $53.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5742 + -0.0015 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.9018)
= $49.49
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5742 + -0.0015 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.8404)
= $46.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5742 + -0.0015 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.7581)
= $42.87
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.75% per annum.
- CPB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (0.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.