Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL)
Simply Good Foods Company is a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.46% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $39.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 709.17% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 19, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.6384
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0692
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0692) – 1
= 31.87%
May 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6384 + 0.0000 × 545 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.7548)
= $42.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6384 + 0.0000 × 545 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.4781)
= $32.40
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6384 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.7032)
= $40.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6384 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.4266)
= $30.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.46% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $39.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -6.8125
b = 0.0057
s = 0.0118
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0057) – 1
= 709.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.84%
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8125 + 0.0057 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(3.4992)
= $33.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8125 + 0.0057 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(3.4520)
= $31.56
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8125 + 0.0057 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(3.6711)
= $39.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8125 + 0.0057 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(3.6238)
= $37.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 709.17% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.