Stock Price Trends

Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL)

Simply Good Foods Company is a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.39% per annum.
  • SMPL price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $33.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.87% per annum.
  • SMPL price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 19, 2021
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 3.6378

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0695

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0695) – 1
= 32.07%

May 19, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y399)
= Exp(a + b × X399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6378 + 0.0000 × 580 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.7547)
= $42.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y399)
= Exp(a + b × X399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6378 + 0.0000 × 580 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.4765)
= $32.35

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6378 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.7071)
= $40.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6378 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.4289)
= $30.84

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.39% per annum.
  • SMPL price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $33.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 4.4179

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0559

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.08%

November 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4179 + -0.0005 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.7799)
= $43.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4179 + -0.0005 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.5561)
= $35.03

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4179 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.6058)
= $36.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4179 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.3820)
= $29.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.87% per annum.
  • SMPL price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.