Stock Price Trends

General Mills Inc (GIS)

General Mills, Inc., is an American multinational manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. It is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota, a suburb of Minneapolis.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.57% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $63.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.92% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.40 (3.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 30, 2022
End date: August 16, 2024

a = 4.5756

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0759

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.50%

June 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 952 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.4939)
= $89.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 952 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.1901)
= $66.03

August 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.3031)
= $73.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(3.9993)
= $54.56

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.57% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $63.80 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 3.6128

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0361

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.53%

September 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.1777)
= $65.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.0334)
= $56.45

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.3316)
= $76.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.1873)
= $65.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.92% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.40 (3.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.