General Mills Inc (GIS)
General Mills, Inc., is an American multinational manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. It is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota, a suburb of Minneapolis.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.57% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $63.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.92% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.40 (3.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 30, 2022
End date: August 16, 2024
a = 4.5756
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0759
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.50%
June 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 952 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.4939)
= $89.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 952 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.1901)
= $66.03
August 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.3031)
= $73.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5756 + -0.0002 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(3.9993)
= $54.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.57% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $63.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.6128
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0361
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.53%
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.1777)
= $65.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.0334)
= $56.45
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.3316)
= $76.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6128 + 0.0004 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.1873)
= $65.84
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.92% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.40 (3.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.