USANA Health Sciences Inc (USNA)
USANA Health Sciences, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells science-based nutritional and personal care products. The company is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.96% per annum.
- USNA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $39.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- USNA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of USNA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.0259
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1002
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -23.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1002) – 1
= 49.28%
February 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0259 + -0.0008 × 463 + 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(4.8789)
= $131.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0259 + -0.0008 × 463 – 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(4.4782)
= $88.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0259 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(3.8561)
= $47.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0259 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(3.4555)
= $31.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.96% per annum.
- USNA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $39.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 13, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.4495
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0649
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0649) – 1
= 29.67%
April 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4495 + -0.0010 × 1,239 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.3326)
= $76.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4495 + -0.0010 × 1,239 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.0728)
= $58.72
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4495 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(3.7420)
= $42.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4495 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(3.4822)
= $32.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- USNA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.