Lancaster Colony Corporation (LANC)
Lancaster Colony Corporation manufactures and markets specialty food products for the retail and foodservice markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Westerville, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.50% per annum.
- LANC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $179.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.24% per annum.
- LANC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LANC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2024
End date: November 1, 2024
a = 6.0617
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0310
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.21%
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0617 + -0.0005 × 1,552 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(5.3570)
= $212.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0617 + -0.0005 × 1,552 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(5.2330)
= $187.35
November 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0617 + -0.0005 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(5.2311)
= $186.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0617 + -0.0005 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(5.1070)
= $165.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.50% per annum.
- LANC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $179.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2024
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 3.2041
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0264
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0264) – 1
= 11.15%
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2041 + 0.0011 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.1931)
= $180.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2041 + 0.0011 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.0874)
= $161.97
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2041 + 0.0011 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.2868)
= $197.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2041 + 0.0011 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.1811)
= $177.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.24% per annum.
- LANC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.