Stock Price Trends

J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)

J & J Snack Foods Corp. The company is headquartered in Pennsauken, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.90% per annum.
  • JJSF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $165.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.35% per annum.
  • JJSF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JJSF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 6, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024

a = 3.6129

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0470

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.67%

February 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6129 + 0.0009 × 1,538 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.0303)
= $152.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6129 + 0.0009 × 1,538 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.8424)
= $126.77

November 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6129 + 0.0009 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.2721)
= $194.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6129 + 0.0009 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.0842)
= $161.45

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.90% per annum.
  • JJSF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $165.06 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 7, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.6900

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0183

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0183) – 1
= 7.60%

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6900 + 0.0002 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.1255)
= $168.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6900 + 0.0002 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.0523)
= $156.38

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6900 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.1738)
= $176.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6900 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.1005)
= $164.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.35% per annum.
  • JJSF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.