J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)
J & J Snack Foods Corp. The company is headquartered in Pennsauken, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.18% per annum.
- JJSF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $165.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.13 (1.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.39% per annum.
- JJSF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JJSF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2022
End date: January 29, 2024
a = 4.4306
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0476
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.97%
May 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4306 + 0.0004 × 967 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(4.9458)
= $140.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4306 + 0.0004 × 967 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(4.7555)
= $116.22
January 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4306 + 0.0004 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.2221)
= $185.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4306 + 0.0004 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.0317)
= $153.20
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.18% per annum.
- JJSF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $165.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.13 (1.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2022
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 4.7403
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0632
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0632) – 1
= 28.78%
August 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7403 + 0.0002 × 1,060 + 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(5.0737)
= $159.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7403 + 0.0002 × 1,060 – 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(4.8208)
= $124.07
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7403 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(5.2229)
= $185.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7403 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0632)
= Exp(4.9700)
= $144.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.39% per annum.
- JJSF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.