Bellring Brands LLC (BRBR)
BellRing Brands, Inc. manufactures and sells nutritional products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.37% per annum.
- BRBR price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $56.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.56 (10.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.16% per annum.
- BRBR price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BRBR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: June 10, 2024
a = 1.5183
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0761
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0761) – 1
= 35.59%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5183 + 0.0016 × 970 + 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(3.1785)
= $24.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5183 + 0.0016 × 970 – 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(2.8740)
= $17.71
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5183 + 0.0016 × 1,698 + 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(4.3101)
= $74.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5183 + 0.0016 × 1,698 – 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(4.0057)
= $54.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.37% per annum.
- BRBR price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $56.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.56 (10.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 4.1252
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0489
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0489) – 1
= 21.63%
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1252 + -0.0001 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(4.1329)
= $62.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1252 + -0.0001 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(3.9372)
= $51.27
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1252 + -0.0001 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(4.1161)
= $61.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1252 + -0.0001 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(3.9203)
= $50.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.16% per annum.
- BRBR price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.