Flowers Foods Inc (FLO)
Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.49% per annum.
- FLO price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $23.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.35% per annum.
- FLO price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FLO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2021
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 3.3741
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0633
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0633) – 1
= 28.80%
December 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3741 + -0.0002 × 828 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.3726)
= $29.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3741 + -0.0002 × 828 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.1196)
= $22.64
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3741 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.2187)
= $25.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3741 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(2.9656)
= $19.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.49% per annum.
- FLO price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $23.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 2.5676
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0402
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.43%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5676 + 0.0003 × 1,478 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.1196)
= $22.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5676 + 0.0003 × 1,478 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(2.9589)
= $19.28
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5676 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.2300)
= $25.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5676 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.0693)
= $21.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.35% per annum.
- FLO price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.