Stock Price Trends

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. produces, grades, packs, markets and distributes shell eggs. The company is headquartered in Jackson, Mississippi.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.13% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $94.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.33% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CALM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 21, 2023
End date: February 24, 2025

a = 1.7623

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0865

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0865) – 1
= 41.36%

June 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7623 + 0.0016 × 1,150 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(3.7895)
= $44.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7623 + 0.0016 × 1,150 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(3.4434)
= $31.29

February 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7623 + 0.0016 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.7795)
= $119.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7623 + 0.0016 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.4334)
= $84.21

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.13% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $94.81 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 9, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025

a = 7.0672

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0681

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.33%

December 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0672 + -0.0014 × 1,687 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.8174)
= $123.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0672 + -0.0014 × 1,687 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.5448)
= $94.14

April 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0672 + -0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.6236)
= $101.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0672 + -0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.3510)
= $77.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.33% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.