John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., along with its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.78% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $82.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (0.69%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.75% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JBSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.9759
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0511
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0511) – 1
= 22.67%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9759 + -0.0003 × 1,258 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(4.7615)
= $116.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9759 + -0.0003 × 1,258 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(4.5571)
= $95.31
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9759 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(4.6185)
= $101.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9759 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(4.4142)
= $82.61
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.78% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $82.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (0.69%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.8307
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0321
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0321) – 1
= 13.69%
July 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8307 + -0.0013 × 1,705 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.6808)
= $107.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8307 + -0.0013 × 1,705 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.5525)
= $94.87
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8307 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.5236)
= $92.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8307 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.3953)
= $81.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.75% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.