Stock Price Trends

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)

The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), commonly known as Kraft Heinz, is an American food company formed by the merger of Kraft Foods and Heinz, co-headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.47% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of January 31, 2025 was $29.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.44% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of January 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: January 31, 2025

a = 3.5304

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0648

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0648) – 1
= 29.61%

March 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5304 + 0.0000 × 399 + 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(3.6550)
= $38.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5304 + 0.0000 × 399 – 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(3.3956)
= $29.83

January 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5304 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(3.6368)
= $37.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5304 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(3.3774)
= $29.29

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.47% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of January 31, 2025 was $29.84 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 30, 2024
End date: January 31, 2025

a = 5.9554

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0241

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0241) – 1
= 10.12%

August 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9554 + -0.0014 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(3.6328)
= $37.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9554 + -0.0014 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(3.5363)
= $34.34

January 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9554 + -0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(3.4142)
= $30.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9554 + -0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(3.3177)
= $27.60

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.44% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of January 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.