Stock Price Trends

WK Kellogg Co (KLG)

WK Kellogg Co is a food company in the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean. The company is headquartered in Battle Creek, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.70% per annum.
  • KLG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $21.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.39 (12.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.33% per annum.
  • KLG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.09 (10.86%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 22, 2024
End date: November 21, 2024

a = 3.1468

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0817

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0817) – 1
= 38.64%

March 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y122)
= Exp(a + b × X122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1468 + -0.0009 × 177 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.1595)
= $23.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y122)
= Exp(a + b × X122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1468 + -0.0009 × 177 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(2.8328)
= $16.99

November 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1468 + -0.0009 × 421 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(2.9519)
= $19.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1468 + -0.0009 × 421 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(2.6251)
= $13.81

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.70% per annum.
  • KLG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $21.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.39 (12.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 21, 2024
End date: November 25, 2024

a = 2.6431

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0381

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.48%

June 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6431 + 0.0006 × 268 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(2.8674)
= $17.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6431 + 0.0006 × 268 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(2.7148)
= $15.10

November 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6431 + 0.0006 × 425 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(2.9541)
= $19.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6431 + 0.0006 × 425 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(2.8015)
= $16.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.33% per annum.
  • KLG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.09 (10.86%).