Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)
Hormel Foods Corporation is an American company founded in 1891 in Austin, Minnesota, by George A. Hormel as George A. Hormel & Company. Originally focusing on the packaging and selling of ham, Spam, sausage and other pork, chicken, beef and lamb products to consumers; by the 1980s, Hormel began offering a wider range of packaged and refrigerated foods.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.53% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $30.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.50 (17.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 25, 2022
End date: February 28, 2024
a = 4.3428
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.65%
February 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3428 + -0.0007 × 669 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.0126)
= $55.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3428 + -0.0007 × 669 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.7842)
= $44.00
February 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3428 + -0.0007 × 1,402 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.5257)
= $33.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3428 + -0.0007 × 1,402 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.2973)
= $27.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.53% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $30.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.50 (17.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 3.5079
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.70%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5079 + -0.0001 × 1,263 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.5359)
= $34.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5079 + -0.0001 × 1,263 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.3395)
= $28.20
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5079 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.5048)
= $33.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5079 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.3084)
= $27.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.