Stock Price Trends

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)

Hormel Foods Corporation is an American company founded in 1891 in Austin, Minnesota, by George A. Hormel as George A. Hormel & Company. Originally focusing on the packaging and selling of ham, Spam, sausage and other pork, chicken, beef and lamb products to consumers; by the 1980s, Hormel began offering a wider range of packaged and refrigerated foods.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.65% per annum.
  • HRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $30.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.68 (17.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.03% per annum.
  • HRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: February 28, 2024

a = 4.3743

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0567

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.44%

March 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3743 + -0.0007 × 699 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.0205)
= $55.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3743 + -0.0007 × 699 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.7938)
= $44.43

February 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3743 + -0.0007 × 1,428 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.5333)
= $34.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3743 + -0.0007 × 1,428 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.3067)
= $27.29

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.65% per annum.
  • HRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $30.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.68 (17.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 3.5196

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0501

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.18%

October 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5196 + -0.0001 × 1,289 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.5474)
= $34.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5196 + -0.0001 × 1,289 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.3471)
= $28.42

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5196 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.5173)
= $33.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5196 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.3170)
= $27.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.03% per annum.
  • HRL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.