Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)
Hormel Foods Corporation is an American company founded in 1891 in Austin, Minnesota, by George A. Hormel as George A. Hormel & Company. Originally focusing on the packaging and selling of ham, Spam, sausage and other pork, chicken, beef and lamb products to consumers; by the 1980s, Hormel began offering a wider range of packaged and refrigerated foods.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.65% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $30.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.40 (16.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: February 28, 2024
a = 4.3729
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0567
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.44%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3729 + -0.0007 × 697 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.0205)
= $55.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3729 + -0.0007 × 697 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.7938)
= $44.43
February 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3729 + -0.0007 × 1,426 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.5333)
= $34.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3729 + -0.0007 × 1,426 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.3067)
= $27.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.65% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $30.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.40 (16.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.5189
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0499
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0499) – 1
= 22.11%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5189 + -0.0001 × 1,287 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.5471)
= $34.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5189 + -0.0001 × 1,287 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.3473)
= $28.43
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5189 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.5171)
= $33.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5189 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.3173)
= $27.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.