Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)
Hormel Foods Corporation is an American company founded in 1891 in Austin, Minnesota, by George A. Hormel as George A. Hormel & Company. Originally focusing on the packaging and selling of ham, Spam, sausage and other pork, chicken, beef and lamb products to consumers; by the 1980s, Hormel began offering a wider range of packaged and refrigerated foods.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.64% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $30.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (4.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.51% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: February 28, 2024
a = 4.4720
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0567
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.44%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4720 + -0.0007 × 831 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.0300)
= $56.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4720 + -0.0007 × 831 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.8034)
= $44.85
February 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4720 + -0.0007 × 1,560 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.5428)
= $34.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4720 + -0.0007 × 1,560 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.3162)
= $27.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.64% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $30.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (4.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 3.3827
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0517
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0517) – 1
= 22.97%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3827 + 0.0000 × 1,421 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.5444)
= $34.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3827 + 0.0000 × 1,421 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.3377)
= $28.15
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3827 + 0.0000 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.5608)
= $35.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3827 + 0.0000 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.3541)
= $28.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.51% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.