Webster Financial Corporation (WBS)
Webster Financial Corporation is the banking holding company for Webster Bank, a National Association that provides a variety of banking, investment, and financial services to individuals, families, and businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Waterbury, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.14% per annum.
- WBS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $59.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.40 (37.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.48% per annum.
- WBS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.04 (0.07%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WBS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 12, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 4.0458
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1038
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1038) – 1
= 51.47%
January 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0458 + -0.0003 × 419 + 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(4.1434)
= $63.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0458 + -0.0003 × 419 – 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.7282)
= $41.60
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0458 + -0.0003 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.8673)
= $47.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0458 + -0.0003 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.4521)
= $31.57
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.14% per annum.
- WBS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $59.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.40 (37.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.9075
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0856
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0856) – 1
= 40.83%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9075 + 0.0006 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.7502)
= $42.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9075 + 0.0006 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.4079)
= $30.20
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9075 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(4.0929)
= $59.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9075 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.7506)
= $42.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.48% per annum.
- WBS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.04 (0.07%).