Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)
Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides consumer and commercial banking and financial products and services. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.73% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $31.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.58% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2021
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.4230
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.37%
January 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4230 + 0.0000 × 426 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(3.5875)
= $36.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4230 + 0.0000 × 426 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(3.2413)
= $25.57
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4230 + 0.0000 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(3.5597)
= $35.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4230 + 0.0000 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(3.2134)
= $24.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.73% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $31.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.1049
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0598
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0598) – 1
= 27.00%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y594)
= Exp(a + b × X594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1049 + 0.0002 × 862 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(3.3970)
= $29.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y594)
= Exp(a + b × X594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1049 + 0.0002 × 862 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(3.1580)
= $23.52
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1049 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(3.5900)
= $36.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1049 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(3.3510)
= $28.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.58% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.