First Bancorp (FBNC)
First Bancorp is First Bank's banking holding company providing banking products and services for individuals and small and medium-sized businesses primarily in North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina. The company is headquartered in Southern Pines, North Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.15% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $44.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.88 (24.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.23% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FBNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.8605
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1028
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1028) – 1
= 50.85%
February 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8605 + -0.0003 × 456 + 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(3.9462)
= $51.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8605 + -0.0003 × 456 – 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(3.5351)
= $34.30
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8605 + -0.0003 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(3.6211)
= $37.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8605 + -0.0003 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(3.2100)
= $24.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.15% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $44.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.88 (24.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4570
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0935
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0935) – 1
= 45.36%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4570 + 0.0007 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.0935)
= Exp(3.4961)
= $32.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4570 + 0.0007 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.0935)
= Exp(3.1221)
= $22.69
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4570 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0935)
= Exp(3.8878)
= $48.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4570 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0935)
= Exp(3.5138)
= $33.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.23% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.