Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)
Provident Financial Services, Inc. is the banking holding company for Provident Bank offering various banking products and services to individuals, families and businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.70% per annum.
- PFS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $17.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.81 (11.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.98% per annum.
- PFS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 3.1920
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0947
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0947) – 1
= 46.03%
March 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 336 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1920 + -0.0003 × 336 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(3.2668)
= $26.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 336 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1920 + -0.0003 × 336 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(2.8882)
= $17.96
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1920 + -0.0003 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(2.8492)
= $17.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1920 + -0.0003 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(2.4705)
= $11.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.70% per annum.
- PFS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $17.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.81 (11.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 1.7470
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0943
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0943) – 1
= 45.85%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7470 + 0.0007 × 1,250 + 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(2.7805)
= $16.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7470 + 0.0007 × 1,250 – 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(2.4031)
= $11.06
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7470 + 0.0007 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(3.1509)
= $23.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7470 + 0.0007 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(2.7735)
= $16.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.98% per annum.
- PFS price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.