First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides a variety of consumer and commercial banking services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Indiana, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.00% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.51 (23.26%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.00% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: July 9, 2024
a = 2.5632
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0754
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0754) – 1
= 35.19%
February 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5632 + 0.0000 × 457 + 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.7140)
= $15.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5632 + 0.0000 × 457 – 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.4124)
= $11.16
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5632 + 0.0000 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.7140)
= $15.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5632 + 0.0000 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.4125)
= $11.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.00% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.51 (23.26%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.6759
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0784
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0784) – 1
= 36.81%
March 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6759 + 0.0006 × 1,213 + 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(2.5741)
= $13.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6759 + 0.0006 × 1,213 – 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(2.2607)
= $9.59
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6759 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(2.9489)
= $19.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6759 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(2.6355)
= $13.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.00% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.