Bank Ozk (OZK)
Bank OZK offers a variety of retail and commercial banking services. The company is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.99% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $42.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.03% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OZK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 3.6364
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0839
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0839) – 1
= 39.86%
January 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6364 + 0.0000 × 275 + 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.7966)
= $44.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6364 + 0.0000 × 275 – 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.4611)
= $31.85
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6364 + 0.0000 × 1,312 + 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.7683)
= $43.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6364 + 0.0000 × 1,312 – 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.4328)
= $30.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.99% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $42.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 3.0509
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.68%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y722)
= Exp(a + b × X722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0509 + 0.0005 × 1,046 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.6930)
= $40.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y722)
= Exp(a + b × X722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0509 + 0.0005 × 1,046 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.3588)
= $28.75
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0509 + 0.0005 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.0330)
= $56.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0509 + 0.0005 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.6988)
= $40.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.03% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.