Bank Ozk (OZK)
Bank OZK offers a variety of retail and commercial banking services. The company is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.25% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $43.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.85% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OZK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 26, 2021
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.5702
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0905
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0905) – 1
= 43.64%
January 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y206)
= Exp(a + b × X206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5702 + 0.0001 × 300 + 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(3.7776)
= $43.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y206)
= Exp(a + b × X206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5702 + 0.0001 × 300 – 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(3.4154)
= $30.43
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5702 + 0.0001 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(3.8984)
= $49.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5702 + 0.0001 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(3.5363)
= $34.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.25% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $43.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: March 7, 2025
a = 3.0252
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.64%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0252 + 0.0005 × 1,072 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.6993)
= $40.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0252 + 0.0005 × 1,072 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.3654)
= $28.94
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0252 + 0.0005 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.0441)
= $57.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0252 + 0.0005 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(3.7102)
= $40.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.85% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.