UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)
UMB Financial Corporation is the holding company of UMB Bank providing various banking and other financial services. The company is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.25% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $121.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 134.94% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UMBF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.5769
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0662) – 1
= 30.31%
March 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5769 + 0.0012 × 1,218 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(4.1121)
= $61.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5769 + 0.0012 × 1,218 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(3.8473)
= $46.87
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5769 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(4.8124)
= $123.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5769 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(4.5476)
= $94.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.25% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $121.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.5107
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 134.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.77%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5107 + 0.0023 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.4443)
= $85.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5107 + 0.0023 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.2808)
= $72.30
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5107 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.8656)
= $129.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5107 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.7020)
= $110.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 134.94% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.