M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)
M&T Bank Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.64% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $213.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.06 (5.46%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.72% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.1060
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0449
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.66%
September 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y965)
= Exp(a + b × X965 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1060 + 0.0012 × 1,402 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.8202)
= $123.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y965)
= Exp(a + b × X965 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1060 + 0.0012 × 1,402 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.6407)
= $103.62
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1060 + 0.0012 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.2953)
= $199.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1060 + 0.0012 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.1158)
= $166.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.64% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $213.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.06 (5.46%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.1606
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0278
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0278) – 1
= 11.76%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1606 + 0.0028 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(5.0970)
= $163.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1606 + 0.0028 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.9858)
= $146.32
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1606 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(5.3978)
= $220.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1606 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(5.2866)
= $197.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.72% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.