M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)
M&T Bank Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.22% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $179.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.92% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2023
End date: March 4, 2025
a = 3.6247
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0704
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0704) – 1
= 32.54%
March 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y746)
= Exp(a + b × X746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6247 + 0.0009 × 1,083 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.7685)
= $117.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y746)
= Exp(a + b × X746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6247 + 0.0009 × 1,083 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.4868)
= $88.84
March 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6247 + 0.0009 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(5.4288)
= $227.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6247 + 0.0009 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(5.1471)
= $171.94
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.22% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $179.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 7.3266
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0373
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0373) – 1
= 16.09%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3266 + -0.0012 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(5.4266)
= $227.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3266 + -0.0012 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(5.2774)
= $195.86
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3266 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(5.2536)
= $191.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3266 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(5.1044)
= $164.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.92% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.