M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)
M&T Bank Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.06% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $176.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.99 (7.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.03% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: February 24, 2025
a = 3.2737
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 52.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.83%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2737 + 0.0011 × 1,230 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.8007)
= $121.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2737 + 0.0011 × 1,230 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.5710)
= $96.64
February 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2737 + 0.0011 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.4426)
= $231.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2737 + 0.0011 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.2128)
= $183.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.06% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $176.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.99 (7.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 7.3362
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0375
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.17%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0012 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.4272)
= $227.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0012 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.2773)
= $195.84
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.2546)
= $191.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.1048)
= $164.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.03% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.