BancFirst Corporation (BANF)
BancFirst Corporation is BancFirst's banking holding company providing a range of commercial banking services to retail and small and medium-sized business clients. The company is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.52% per annum.
- BANF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $121.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.75 (19.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.86% per annum.
- BANF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BANF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2022
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 4.4881
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0800
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0800) – 1
= 37.71%
March 14, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y581)
= Exp(a + b × X581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 845 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4881 + 0.0000 × 845 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.6361)
= $103.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y581)
= Exp(a + b × X581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 845 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4881 + 0.0000 × 845 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.3161)
= $74.90
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4881 + 0.0000 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.6240)
= $101.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4881 + 0.0000 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.3040)
= $74.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.52% per annum.
- BANF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $121.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.75 (19.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.0960
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0553
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 69.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0553) – 1
= 24.78%
March 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0960 + 0.0015 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.4943)
= $89.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0960 + 0.0015 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.2730)
= $71.73
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0960 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.8572)
= $128.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0960 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.6358)
= $103.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.86% per annum.
- BANF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.