Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL)
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. is the banking holding company that provides a range of commercial banking services primarily to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals and individual clients. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.30% per annum.
- STEL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.51 (9.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.12% per annum.
- STEL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STEL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 3.4382
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0923
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0923) – 1
= 44.65%
February 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4382 + -0.0002 × 443 + 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(3.5439)
= $34.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4382 + -0.0002 × 443 – 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(3.1748)
= $23.92
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4382 + -0.0002 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(3.3207)
= $27.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4382 + -0.0002 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(2.9515)
= $19.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.30% per annum.
- STEL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $29.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.51 (9.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.7242
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0751
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0751) – 1
= 35.03%
April 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7242 + 0.0003 × 1,230 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.2298)
= $25.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7242 + 0.0003 × 1,230 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.9294)
= $18.72
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7242 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.4020)
= $30.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7242 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.1017)
= $22.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.12% per annum.
- STEL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.