Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
Tompkins Financial Corporation, a community-based financial services company, provides consumer and commercial banking, financial leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning and wealth management, and insurance. The company is headquartered in Ithaca, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 130.47% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $74.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 641.61% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.0582
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0665
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 130.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0665) – 1
= 30.50%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0582 + 0.0023 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.8583)
= $47.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0582 + 0.0023 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.5921)
= $36.31
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0582 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(4.3684)
= $78.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0582 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(4.1022)
= $60.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 130.47% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $74.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 25, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -5.7076
b = 0.0055
s = 0.0403
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0055) – 1
= 641.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0403) – 1
= 17.50%
September 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.7076 + 0.0055 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(4.0948)
= $60.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.7076 + 0.0055 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(3.9336)
= $51.09
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.7076 + 0.0055 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(4.3968)
= $81.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.7076 + 0.0055 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(4.2355)
= $69.10
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 641.61% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.