First Bancorp (FBP)
First BanCorp. The company is headquartered in Santurce, Puerto Rico.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.77% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $20.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.36% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FBP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2023
End date: October 22, 2024
a = 0.8901
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0515
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.88%
March 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y832)
= Exp(a + b × X832 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0012 × 1,210 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.4624)
= $11.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y832)
= Exp(a + b × X832 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0012 × 1,210 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.2564)
= $9.55
October 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0012 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(3.1764)
= $23.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0012 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.9704)
= $19.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.77% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $20.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.6512
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0329
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0329) – 1
= 14.07%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6512 + -0.0004 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(3.1023)
= $22.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6512 + -0.0004 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(2.9707)
= $19.50
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6512 + -0.0004 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(3.0618)
= $21.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6512 + -0.0004 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(2.9302)
= $18.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.36% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.