Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
Valley National Bancorp is the parent company of Valley National Bank offering various commercial, retail, insurance and wealth management financial services products. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.17% per annum.
- VLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $10.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.51 (17.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.24% per annum.
- VLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2021
End date: August 22, 2024
a = 2.7712
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1066
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1066) – 1
= 53.20%
March 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7712 + -0.0005 × 471 + 2 × 0.1066)
= Exp(2.7721)
= $15.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7712 + -0.0005 × 471 – 2 × 0.1066)
= Exp(2.3456)
= $10.44
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7712 + -0.0005 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.1066)
= Exp(2.2014)
= $9.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7712 + -0.0005 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.1066)
= Exp(1.7749)
= $5.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.17% per annum.
- VLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $10.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.51 (17.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 29, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -2.4260
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0399
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 158.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0399) – 1
= 17.32%
May 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4260 + 0.0026 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(1.9478)
= $7.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4260 + 0.0026 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(1.7880)
= $5.98
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4260 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.4000)
= $11.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4260 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.2403)
= $9.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.24% per annum.
- VLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.