Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH)
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is the banking holding company for Commerce Bank providing retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.32% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $71.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 523.79% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBSH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.5563
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0508
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0508) – 1
= 22.54%
August 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5563 + 0.0009 × 1,370 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(3.8755)
= $48.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5563 + 0.0009 × 1,370 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(3.6722)
= $39.34
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5563 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.2807)
= $72.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5563 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.0774)
= $58.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.32% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $71.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -4.8857
b = 0.0050
s = 0.0275
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0050) – 1
= 523.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.62%
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8857 + 0.0050 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(4.0817)
= $59.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8857 + 0.0050 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.9718)
= $53.08
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8857 + 0.0050 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(4.3275)
= $75.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8857 + 0.0050 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(4.2175)
= $67.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 523.79% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.