Comerica Inc (CMA)
Comerica Incorporated is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 122.81% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $67.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 313.36% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.1981
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0351
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0351) – 1
= 15.08%
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1981 + 0.0022 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(3.9053)
= $49.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1981 + 0.0022 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(3.7649)
= $43.16
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1981 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(4.2763)
= $71.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1981 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(4.1359)
= $62.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 122.81% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $67.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -2.8520
b = 0.0039
s = 0.0266
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 313.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.22%
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8520 + 0.0039 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.1103)
= $60.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8520 + 0.0039 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.0040)
= $54.81
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8520 + 0.0039 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.3008)
= $73.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8520 + 0.0039 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.1945)
= $66.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 313.36% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.