Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN)
Triumph Financial Inc., a financial and technology company, focuses on payments, factoring, and banking. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.55% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $76.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.23 (22.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.48% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.85 (4.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TFIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 4.7767
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1903
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1903) – 1
= 114.12%
February 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7767 + -0.0006 × 377 + 2 × 0.1903)
= Exp(4.9454)
= $140.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7767 + -0.0006 × 377 – 2 × 0.1903)
= Exp(4.1841)
= $65.63
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y956)
= Exp(a + b × X956 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7767 + -0.0006 × 1,385 + 2 × 0.1903)
= Exp(4.3788)
= $79.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y956)
= Exp(a + b × X956 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7767 + -0.0006 × 1,385 – 2 × 0.1903)
= Exp(3.6174)
= $37.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.55% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $76.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.23 (22.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2022
End date: January 22, 2025
a = 3.2127
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0790
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0790) – 1
= 37.15%
September 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2127 + 0.0007 × 973 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(4.0799)
= $59.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2127 + 0.0007 × 973 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(3.7640)
= $43.12
January 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2127 + 0.0007 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(4.6981)
= $109.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2127 + 0.0007 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(4.3822)
= $80.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.48% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.85 (4.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.