Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN)
Triumph Financial Inc., a financial and technology company, focuses on payments, factoring, and banking. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.74% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $52.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.75% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TFIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 13.6308
b = -0.0053
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.42%
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6308 + -0.0053 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.8090)
= $122.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6308 + -0.0053 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.6316)
= $102.68
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6308 + -0.0053 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(3.9874)
= $53.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6308 + -0.0053 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(3.8099)
= $45.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.74% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $52.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 14.7914
b = -0.0060
s = 0.0465
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -88.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0465) – 1
= 20.44%
January 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7914 + -0.0060 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.5708)
= $96.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7914 + -0.0060 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.3848)
= $80.23
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7914 + -0.0060 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(3.9662)
= $52.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7914 + -0.0060 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(3.7803)
= $43.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.75% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.