KeyCorp (KEY)
KeyBank, the primary subsidiary of KeyCorp, is a regional bank headquartered in Cleveland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.18% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $16.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.32 (7.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.75% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KEY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2023
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 0.8752
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0758
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0758) – 1
= 35.41%
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8752 + 0.0012 × 1,116 + 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(2.3307)
= $10.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8752 + 0.0012 × 1,116 – 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(2.0276)
= $7.60
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8752 + 0.0012 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(3.1112)
= $22.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8752 + 0.0012 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0758)
= Exp(2.8081)
= $16.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.18% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $16.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.32 (7.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.9002
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0330
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0330) – 1
= 14.09%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9002 + -0.0012 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.0033)
= $20.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9002 + -0.0012 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(2.8715)
= $17.66
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9002 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(2.8313)
= $16.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9002 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(2.6995)
= $14.87
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.75% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.