KeyCorp (KEY)
KeyBank, the primary subsidiary of KeyCorp, is a regional bank headquartered in Cleveland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.05% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $17.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.16% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KEY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 0.7638
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0751
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0751) – 1
= 35.02%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0012 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.3353)
= $10.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0012 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.0351)
= $7.65
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.1079)
= $22.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.8076)
= $16.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.05% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $17.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 5.6574
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -43.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.59%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6574 + -0.0015 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.0176)
= $20.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6574 + -0.0015 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(2.8990)
= $18.16
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6574 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(2.8907)
= $18.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6574 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(2.7721)
= $15.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.16% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.