KeyCorp (KEY)
KeyBank, the primary subsidiary of KeyCorp, is a regional bank headquartered in Cleveland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.02% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $14.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.95 (16.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.11% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KEY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2023
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 0.9079
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0760
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0760) – 1
= 35.54%
April 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9079 + 0.0012 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(2.3291)
= $10.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9079 + 0.0012 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(2.0249)
= $7.58
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9079 + 0.0012 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(3.1111)
= $22.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9079 + 0.0012 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(2.8069)
= $16.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.02% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $14.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.95 (16.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.5957
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.13%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + -0.0016 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.0507)
= $21.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + -0.0016 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(2.8673)
= $17.59
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + -0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(2.7813)
= $16.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + -0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(2.5979)
= $13.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.11% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.