Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR)
Cullen / Frost Bankers, Inc. is the banking holding company for Frost Bank offering commercial and consumer banking services in Texas. The company is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.01% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $115.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.40% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of April 25, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $8.31 (6.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CFR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: October 8, 2024
a = 4.7996
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1111) – 1
= 55.95%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7996 + -0.0001 × 353 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.9822)
= $145.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7996 + -0.0001 × 353 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.5378)
= $93.48
October 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7996 + -0.0001 × 1,625 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.8394)
= $126.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7996 + -0.0001 × 1,625 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.3950)
= $81.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.01% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $115.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2023
End date: March 10, 2025
a = 3.4736
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0670
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0670) – 1
= 30.76%
August 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4736 + 0.0008 × 1,204 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(4.5829)
= $97.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4736 + 0.0008 × 1,204 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(4.3148)
= $74.80
March 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4736 + 0.0008 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(5.0479)
= $155.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4736 + 0.0008 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(4.7797)
= $119.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.40% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of April 25, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $8.31 (6.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.