Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR)
Cullen / Frost Bankers, Inc. is the banking holding company for Frost Bank offering commercial and consumer banking services in Texas. The company is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.75% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $141.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $31.23 (28.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.47% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CFR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 5.0187
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0969
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0969) – 1
= 47.35%
September 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y418)
= Exp(a + b × X418 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0187 + -0.0003 × 604 + 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(5.0428)
= $154.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y418)
= Exp(a + b × X418 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0187 + -0.0003 × 604 – 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(4.6552)
= $105.13
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0187 + -0.0003 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(4.7546)
= $116.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0187 + -0.0003 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(4.3669)
= $78.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.75% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $141.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $31.23 (28.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.4350
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0681
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.29%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4350 + 0.0008 × 1,295 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.5954)
= $99.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4350 + 0.0008 × 1,295 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.3232)
= $75.43
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4350 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(5.0155)
= $150.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4350 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.7432)
= $114.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.47% per annum.
- CFR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.