Texas Capital Bancshares Inc (TCBI)
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. is the banking holding company for Texas Capital Bank, a National Association that offers various banking products and services for commercial companies, professionals and entrepreneurs. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.00% per annum.
- TCBI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $85.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.49 (29.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 257.19% per annum.
- TCBI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TCBI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 24, 2020
End date: July 9, 2024
a = 4.2126
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0938
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0938) – 1
= 45.53%
November 24, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + -0.0001 × 370 + 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(4.3588)
= $78.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + -0.0001 × 370 – 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(3.9836)
= $53.71
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + -0.0001 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(4.2108)
= $67.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + -0.0001 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(3.8356)
= $46.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.00% per annum.
- TCBI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $85.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.49 (29.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -1.9119
b = 0.0035
s = 0.0306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 257.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.02%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9119 + 0.0035 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.1381)
= $62.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9119 + 0.0035 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.0157)
= $55.46
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9119 + 0.0035 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.5183)
= $91.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9119 + 0.0035 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.3959)
= $81.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 257.19% per annum.
- TCBI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.