Community Bank System Inc (CBU)
Community Bank System, Inc. is the banking holding company for Community Bank, NA providing various banking and other financial services to retail, commercial and municipal clients. The company is headquartered in Onondaga, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.18% per annum.
- CBU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $67.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,221.61% per annum.
- CBU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.1932
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0710
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0710) – 1
= 32.84%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1932 + 0.0016 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(3.8330)
= $46.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1932 + 0.0016 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(3.5490)
= $34.78
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1932 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.3084)
= $74.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1932 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.0245)
= $55.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.18% per annum.
- CBU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $67.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -8.6461
b = 0.0071
s = 0.0372
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0071) – 1
= 1,221.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0372) – 1
= 16.02%
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6461 + 0.0071 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.1303)
= $62.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6461 + 0.0071 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(3.9817)
= $53.61
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6461 + 0.0071 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.3425)
= $76.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6461 + 0.0071 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.1939)
= $66.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,221.61% per annum.
- CBU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.