W. R. Berkley Corp (WRB)
W. R. Berkley Corporation is a commercial lines property & casualty insurance holding company organized in Delaware and based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.62% per annum.
- WRB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $60.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.67 (13.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.20% per annum.
- WRB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WRB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2023
End date: April 22, 2024
a = 1.8863
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0362
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.60%
April 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8863 + 0.0013 × 1,248 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(3.6214)
= $37.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8863 + 0.0013 × 1,248 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(3.4764)
= $32.34
April 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8863 + 0.0013 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.1103)
= $60.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8863 + 0.0013 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(3.9654)
= $52.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.62% per annum.
- WRB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $60.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.67 (13.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.4416
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0412
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.90%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4416 + 0.0003 × 1,524 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(4.0415)
= $56.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4416 + 0.0003 × 1,524 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.8769)
= $48.27
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4416 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(4.1441)
= $63.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4416 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.9795)
= $53.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.20% per annum.
- WRB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.