Mercury General Corporation (MCY)
Mercury General Corporation engages in underwriting personal auto insurance in the United States. The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 103.89% per annum.
- MCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $73.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.31% per annum.
- MCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.7239
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0781
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 103.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0781) – 1
= 36.69%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7239 + 0.0020 × 1,281 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(3.3804)
= $29.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7239 + 0.0020 × 1,281 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(3.0678)
= $21.50
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7239 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(4.4441)
= $85.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7239 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(4.1315)
= $62.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 103.89% per annum.
- MCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $73.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.6883
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.40%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6883 + 0.0014 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.9385)
= $51.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6883 + 0.0014 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.7529)
= $42.64
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6883 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.3260)
= $75.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6883 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.1404)
= $62.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.31% per annum.
- MCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.