Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. offers private passenger and commercial auto and homeowners insurance in the United States. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.87% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $83.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.23% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SAFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.6193
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0447
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 17.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0447) – 1
= 19.56%
April 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6193 + 0.0005 × 1,253 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.2729)
= $71.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6193 + 0.0005 × 1,253 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.0943)
= $60.00
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6193 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.5310)
= $92.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6193 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.3523)
= $77.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.87% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $83.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.1034
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0396
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.16%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1034 + 0.0002 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.4343)
= $84.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1034 + 0.0002 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.2759)
= $71.95
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1034 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.4850)
= $88.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1034 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.3266)
= $75.69
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.23% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.