Stock Price Trends

Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)

Palomar Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, offers specialized property insurance to residential and commercial clients. The company is headquartered in La Jolla, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.92% per annum.
  • PLMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $107.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.68% per annum.
  • PLMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: October 22, 2024

a = 1.4899

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0636

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 89.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0636) – 1
= 28.98%

August 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4899 + 0.0018 × 1,364 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.0142)
= $55.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4899 + 0.0018 × 1,364 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(3.7597)
= $42.94

October 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4899 + 0.0018 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.7770)
= $118.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4899 + 0.0018 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.5225)
= $92.06

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.92% per annum.
  • PLMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $107.16 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: November 15, 2024

a = 2.7234

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0408

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.72%

February 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7234 + 0.0010 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.4008)
= $81.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7234 + 0.0010 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.2376)
= $69.24

November 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7234 + 0.0010 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.6832)
= $108.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7234 + 0.0010 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.5201)
= $91.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.68% per annum.
  • PLMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.