Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL)
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., a specialty insurance company, offers property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.85% per annum.
- KNSL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $469.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $47.83 (9.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.96% per annum.
- KNSL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KNSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2021
End date: October 26, 2023
a = 4.5018
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0706
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0706) – 1
= 32.66%
March 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5018 + 0.0010 × 488 + 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(5.1477)
= $172.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5018 + 0.0010 × 488 – 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(4.8651)
= $129.68
October 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5018 + 0.0010 × 1,436 + 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(6.1279)
= $458.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5018 + 0.0010 × 1,436 – 2 × 0.0706)
= Exp(5.8453)
= $345.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.85% per annum.
- KNSL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $469.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $47.83 (9.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.6331
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0968
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0968) – 1
= 47.31%
March 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6331 + 0.0009 × 488 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(5.2570)
= $191.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6331 + 0.0009 × 488 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(4.8696)
= $130.27
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6331 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.4366)
= $624.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6331 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.0492)
= $423.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.96% per annum.
- KNSL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.