Stock Price Trends

Chubb Ltd (CB)

Chubb Limited, incorporated in Zurich, Switzerland, is the parent company of Chubb, a global provider of insurance products covering property and casualty, accident and health, reinsurance, and life insurance and the largest publicly traded property and casualty company in the world.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.71% per annum.
  • CB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $283.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.63 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.51% per annum.
  • CB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: October 29, 2024

a = 4.0742

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0266

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.24%

May 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0742 + 0.0009 × 1,280 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.2749)
= $195.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0742 + 0.0009 × 1,280 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.1683)
= $175.62

October 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0742 + 0.0009 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.7455)
= $312.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0742 + 0.0009 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.6389)
= $281.16

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.71% per annum.
  • CB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $283.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.63 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.4969

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0262

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.03%

January 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4969 + 0.0006 × 1,521 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.5293)
= $251.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4969 + 0.0006 × 1,521 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.4246)
= $226.92

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4969 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.7258)
= $306.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4969 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.6211)
= $276.20

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.51% per annum.
  • CB price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.