Old Republic International Corp (ORI)
Old Republic International Corporation is engaged in the insurance underwriting and related services business primarily in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.45% per annum.
- ORI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $39.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 280.56% per annum.
- ORI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 1.9144
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0282
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0282) – 1
= 11.95%
January 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0010 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.2951)
= $26.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0010 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.1822)
= $24.10
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.7046)
= $40.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.5917)
= $36.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.45% per annum.
- ORI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $39.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = -3.0101
b = 0.0037
s = 0.0053
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 280.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0053) – 1
= 2.14%
March 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0101 + 0.0037 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0053)
= Exp(3.6060)
= $36.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0101 + 0.0037 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0053)
= Exp(3.5848)
= $36.05
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0101 + 0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0053)
= Exp(3.6829)
= $39.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0101 + 0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0053)
= Exp(3.6617)
= $38.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 280.56% per annum.
- ORI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.